Welcome to the 2nd installment of The War Room for the off-season of 2015. As always, I'll begin this session with the ground rules for those that may be new. Everything that is reported in The War Room must stay in The War Room. Sometimes the info is sensitive enough that it simply doesn't need to be passed on beyond the doors of this message board thread.
This is a special feature for our subscribers only. The reason why it is posted on the premium board is because that's the only way to ensure that the info stays exclusive to Dayton Flyer fans. Thanks for your cooperation.
Without further ado, here it is.... The 2nd edition of the War Room for the 2015 off-season!
TRANSFERS
Here's some house cleaning in terms of recruiting before anything else. I spoke with Josh Cunningham earlier this week and asked him if he had any visits setup, and he said not yet. He final exams at Bradley end on May 13th. He told me his plans after that are to talk with his family and then decide where he is going to visit. Dayton will definitely be one, according to him.
Another transfer that Dayton was rumored to be involved with is Cleveland State big Anton Grady. From what I gather, Dayton is not as heavily involved as initially perceived by other media members. He recently visited Wichita State and is they are the likely favorite to land his services.
Once colleges start letting out, expect visits to start ramping up.
KEEP AN EYE ON
A 2016 guy that Dayton is starting to show some interest in is Dantez Walton from Lima Central Catholic. The forward is currently 6-6 and is still growing. He averaged 15.9 points and 8.2 rebounds this past season as a junior.
He recently picked up an offer from Robert Morris and gained interest from Butler and Indiana.
He runs with King James AAU, along with Seth Towns, Derrick Daniels, and Darnell Hoskins Jr. so Dayton will be in attendance for a lot of their games in July.
WHAT NOW?
Well, obviously, the question on everybody's mind is what happens with the Florida job and what happens to Archie Miller? I've been intentionally keeping my thoughts within for the opportunity like this. I've heard from my best sources and I've heard from good sources. Some of confident, some are nervous.
The one thing that all my sources aligned on...Just like most everything else, Archie Miller is keeping it close to the vest. It's likely that not even his assistant coaches know what's going on currently.
Good news is some of my best sources seem to be confident that he'll be coaching Dayton in the fall. Some are pointing at the things that he has said in the past about staying at Dayton as long as they'll have him, how they gave him a chance when he had a 0-0 record, how they can do what they need to do at Dayton.
The feeling has always been that Miller is different than the last couple guys that coached at Dayton. That he's focused on his job and tells you exactly what he's feeling. Take him at his word because he's never gone against it to this point. There's no coachspeak with Arch. And that has them confident he truly is not motivated by anything other than getting the job done.
FINANCES
I have a feeling that Florida Athletic Director Jeremy Foley knew all along that Donovan was likely going to bolt for the NBA. From those that know him, Foley makes his own hires with very little input from his colleagues. He's likely already done a lot of legwork and put out feelers before the deal was even finalized in Oklahoma City.
From what I can tell, it doesn't sound like they want to pay their next head coach the kind of money that Billy Donovan was making ($4M). They're already paying a multi-million dollar buyout to Colorado State for football coach Jim McElwain and would likely have to do the same for Archie Miller. It's not going to be as easy for Florida to lure him as most in the national media seem to think.
LOYALTY
As I've alluded to before, Miller often references how Dayton took a chance on him when he was 32 years old and had a 0-0 record. He has since built not only a top college basketball program, but great personal relationships with his bosses and those at Dayton. At the same time, Dayton has shown their loyalty, giving him an extension when they were 1-5 in the Atlantic 10 in January, 2014. Building him new facilities so he has the ability to compete against the likes of the Big East and the Big Ten. Those things go a long way when it comes to him having other options on the table.
When he received his most recent contract extension and saw his annual pay jump to over $2M, I was told he was "amazed" by the financial boost and confidence that Dayton showed him. That was just a little more than one month ago. He's rumored to have turned down a substantial contract from Alabama (expected to be equivalent to what Florida will offer), so money is not the issue. Alabama was probably a lot easier to turn down because they are just not a power in basketball. Florida is a lot different than Bama though.
DECISION-MAKING
Billy Donovan proved that National Championships can be won at Florida, thus making UF a potential destination job. I don't believe Archie Miller will make multiple jumps within the college ranks before he gets to his final destination. If he thinks as Florida as somewhere he can spend the next 15+ years and win, Dayton could be in trouble. In my opinion, he won't move to Florida and then somewhere else unless he has NBA aspirations (nobody I've spoke to knows that) similar to Donovan. He has a great situation at Dayton. Would the University of Florida be somewhere he sees himself retiring? That's one question.
The other question to ask is can he do something at Florida that he can't do at Dayton? Certaianly you can ask if Sean Miller got closer to a national title at Arizona than he did at Xavier? He hasn't reacahed that elusive Final Four at either school, but was a step away (just like Archie) at both of them. It would probably be easier for Archie to recruit to the SEC and recruit to the sunshine, likely increasing his chances of a Final Four or National Championship in Gainesville. But before Billy Donovan, was that same sentence true? There's some that feel that Archie Miller could make that sentence true at Dayton if he stays long enough.
SILVER LINING
There is a silver lining if Archie is to leave for Florida. Along the way, he had Dayton build up their facilities to be one of the best outside of the power five. He won 53 games in the last two years, including five NCAA tournament games. He increased the spendings and revenues, and Dayton is ranked ahead of Florida by more than $30M in valuation. Miller took what all of us feel is a great job and made it even more attractive.
I feel confident in saying that 90% or more of the candidates Dayton would target are going to be head coaches and not assistants this time around. The best news of all: from what I have gathered the past couple months, the top targets that Dayton has on their short list are still available. They'll throw a lot more money at a replacement because they feel the position that Archie has built this program to be in now demands that.
GUT PREDICTION
Before all the chaos gets rev'd up within my network, I'm going to give you my gut feeling. There's something about Archie Miller that tells me he is going to be super picky because of the situation he has at Dayton. He's been given everything he's asked for in terms of improvements, given three times as much money as any previous Dayton coach has received, and is making Dayton a perennial NCAA tournament team.
Dayton's facilities are better than Florida's right now. UF has it in their pipeline to upgrade theirs, but it was already delayed once. Florida's cupboard is bare next season so there will be some rebuilding of the roster. Is Florida a product on its own or is it a product of Billy Donovan? Florida is probably a top 15 job now. Because of the support he has received at Dayton and the success he's had here though, I think Archie will hold on to the security he has in Dayton and keep building, while waiting for a Top 5 or Top 10 job to open. Nothing I was told, just offering my gut feeling. Of course, only Archie really knows. But from my years of covering him, he's not a BSer and I believe all he says positive about his current job and employer. He could very well leave, but if so, I would have no doubt it would be one of the toughest decisions he's ever made.
CLOSING
That does it for this edition of the War Room. It should be an interesting next couple of weeks. Hopefully when it comes to Dayton basketball, the April Showers are over and May Flowers are blooming.
Thanks to everyone for your continued support and a formal welcome to those new subscribers to the site. It's all of you that make this the best place to talk FlyerHoops all year round!
This is a special feature for our subscribers only. The reason why it is posted on the premium board is because that's the only way to ensure that the info stays exclusive to Dayton Flyer fans. Thanks for your cooperation.
Without further ado, here it is.... The 2nd edition of the War Room for the 2015 off-season!
TRANSFERS
Here's some house cleaning in terms of recruiting before anything else. I spoke with Josh Cunningham earlier this week and asked him if he had any visits setup, and he said not yet. He final exams at Bradley end on May 13th. He told me his plans after that are to talk with his family and then decide where he is going to visit. Dayton will definitely be one, according to him.
Another transfer that Dayton was rumored to be involved with is Cleveland State big Anton Grady. From what I gather, Dayton is not as heavily involved as initially perceived by other media members. He recently visited Wichita State and is they are the likely favorite to land his services.
Once colleges start letting out, expect visits to start ramping up.
KEEP AN EYE ON
A 2016 guy that Dayton is starting to show some interest in is Dantez Walton from Lima Central Catholic. The forward is currently 6-6 and is still growing. He averaged 15.9 points and 8.2 rebounds this past season as a junior.
He recently picked up an offer from Robert Morris and gained interest from Butler and Indiana.
He runs with King James AAU, along with Seth Towns, Derrick Daniels, and Darnell Hoskins Jr. so Dayton will be in attendance for a lot of their games in July.
WHAT NOW?
Well, obviously, the question on everybody's mind is what happens with the Florida job and what happens to Archie Miller? I've been intentionally keeping my thoughts within for the opportunity like this. I've heard from my best sources and I've heard from good sources. Some of confident, some are nervous.
The one thing that all my sources aligned on...Just like most everything else, Archie Miller is keeping it close to the vest. It's likely that not even his assistant coaches know what's going on currently.
Good news is some of my best sources seem to be confident that he'll be coaching Dayton in the fall. Some are pointing at the things that he has said in the past about staying at Dayton as long as they'll have him, how they gave him a chance when he had a 0-0 record, how they can do what they need to do at Dayton.
The feeling has always been that Miller is different than the last couple guys that coached at Dayton. That he's focused on his job and tells you exactly what he's feeling. Take him at his word because he's never gone against it to this point. There's no coachspeak with Arch. And that has them confident he truly is not motivated by anything other than getting the job done.
FINANCES
I have a feeling that Florida Athletic Director Jeremy Foley knew all along that Donovan was likely going to bolt for the NBA. From those that know him, Foley makes his own hires with very little input from his colleagues. He's likely already done a lot of legwork and put out feelers before the deal was even finalized in Oklahoma City.
From what I can tell, it doesn't sound like they want to pay their next head coach the kind of money that Billy Donovan was making ($4M). They're already paying a multi-million dollar buyout to Colorado State for football coach Jim McElwain and would likely have to do the same for Archie Miller. It's not going to be as easy for Florida to lure him as most in the national media seem to think.
LOYALTY
As I've alluded to before, Miller often references how Dayton took a chance on him when he was 32 years old and had a 0-0 record. He has since built not only a top college basketball program, but great personal relationships with his bosses and those at Dayton. At the same time, Dayton has shown their loyalty, giving him an extension when they were 1-5 in the Atlantic 10 in January, 2014. Building him new facilities so he has the ability to compete against the likes of the Big East and the Big Ten. Those things go a long way when it comes to him having other options on the table.
When he received his most recent contract extension and saw his annual pay jump to over $2M, I was told he was "amazed" by the financial boost and confidence that Dayton showed him. That was just a little more than one month ago. He's rumored to have turned down a substantial contract from Alabama (expected to be equivalent to what Florida will offer), so money is not the issue. Alabama was probably a lot easier to turn down because they are just not a power in basketball. Florida is a lot different than Bama though.
DECISION-MAKING
Billy Donovan proved that National Championships can be won at Florida, thus making UF a potential destination job. I don't believe Archie Miller will make multiple jumps within the college ranks before he gets to his final destination. If he thinks as Florida as somewhere he can spend the next 15+ years and win, Dayton could be in trouble. In my opinion, he won't move to Florida and then somewhere else unless he has NBA aspirations (nobody I've spoke to knows that) similar to Donovan. He has a great situation at Dayton. Would the University of Florida be somewhere he sees himself retiring? That's one question.
The other question to ask is can he do something at Florida that he can't do at Dayton? Certaianly you can ask if Sean Miller got closer to a national title at Arizona than he did at Xavier? He hasn't reacahed that elusive Final Four at either school, but was a step away (just like Archie) at both of them. It would probably be easier for Archie to recruit to the SEC and recruit to the sunshine, likely increasing his chances of a Final Four or National Championship in Gainesville. But before Billy Donovan, was that same sentence true? There's some that feel that Archie Miller could make that sentence true at Dayton if he stays long enough.
SILVER LINING
There is a silver lining if Archie is to leave for Florida. Along the way, he had Dayton build up their facilities to be one of the best outside of the power five. He won 53 games in the last two years, including five NCAA tournament games. He increased the spendings and revenues, and Dayton is ranked ahead of Florida by more than $30M in valuation. Miller took what all of us feel is a great job and made it even more attractive.
I feel confident in saying that 90% or more of the candidates Dayton would target are going to be head coaches and not assistants this time around. The best news of all: from what I have gathered the past couple months, the top targets that Dayton has on their short list are still available. They'll throw a lot more money at a replacement because they feel the position that Archie has built this program to be in now demands that.
GUT PREDICTION
Before all the chaos gets rev'd up within my network, I'm going to give you my gut feeling. There's something about Archie Miller that tells me he is going to be super picky because of the situation he has at Dayton. He's been given everything he's asked for in terms of improvements, given three times as much money as any previous Dayton coach has received, and is making Dayton a perennial NCAA tournament team.
Dayton's facilities are better than Florida's right now. UF has it in their pipeline to upgrade theirs, but it was already delayed once. Florida's cupboard is bare next season so there will be some rebuilding of the roster. Is Florida a product on its own or is it a product of Billy Donovan? Florida is probably a top 15 job now. Because of the support he has received at Dayton and the success he's had here though, I think Archie will hold on to the security he has in Dayton and keep building, while waiting for a Top 5 or Top 10 job to open. Nothing I was told, just offering my gut feeling. Of course, only Archie really knows. But from my years of covering him, he's not a BSer and I believe all he says positive about his current job and employer. He could very well leave, but if so, I would have no doubt it would be one of the toughest decisions he's ever made.
CLOSING
That does it for this edition of the War Room. It should be an interesting next couple of weeks. Hopefully when it comes to Dayton basketball, the April Showers are over and May Flowers are blooming.
Thanks to everyone for your continued support and a formal welcome to those new subscribers to the site. It's all of you that make this the best place to talk FlyerHoops all year round!
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