Welcome to the 9th and final installment of The War Room for the 2023 offseason! Happy NOVEMBER! As always, I'll begin this session with the ground rules for those that may be new. Everything that is reported in The War Room must stay in The War Room. Sometimes the info is sensitive enough that it simply doesn't need to be passed on beyond the doors of this message board thread. This is a special feature for our subscribers only. The reason why it is posted on the premium board is because that's the only way to ensure that the info stays exclusive to Dayton Flyer fans. Thanks for your cooperation. Without further ado, here it is.... The 9th edition of the War Room for 2023!
NEXT YEAR'S EXHIBITION
I don't think there's any doubt that The Spotlight for Jay's Light was a huge success from the start of the event to the conclusion with the Ohio State-Dayton charity game. In all, they raised half a million dollars for a long overdue cause. Even with a loss in the actual game, it just felt like a win walking out of UD Arena that day. Anthony Grant mentioned afterwards that they'd like this to be an annual event and are already working on next year.
As I've already wrote on the board, it appears that Dayton is targeting Kentucky to be their opponent for the second annual charity exhibition. Although it's not 100% done, according to my sources, it's very close. The Wildcats would have been the opponent this year had Ohio State politely declined, but we all know that the Buckeyes were a great partner in this inaugural game.
I think with a charity game, you want to minimize expenses so a team that can bus over makes the most sense. So with that, geographically, if you want to bring in a name program you have to think about a neighboring Big Ten, ACC, Big East, Big XII, and those northern SEC schools. I could see Notre Dame being on the short list of possibilities in the next couple of years as well.
The other thing that I had a few times brought up was that they should reverse the order they went with this year. Instead of doing the Ohio State game first and the exhibition with a D2 or D3 school right before the season, allow the charity exhibition to crescendo up to the season opener. A lot may have to do with what Anthony Grant wants to do. If he likes it being a “tip-off” to the entire season, it will likely stay in that slot.
PLAYING TIME
This, to me, is the most important and intriguing aspect to the season. I haven’t shied away from calling this the deepest Dayton roster that I have covered in 25 years of being a scribe at UD Arena. I truly believe Dayton’s strength is in numbers with this group. It appears through two exhibition games, Anthony Grant wants to go 10 deep.
My biggest fault with Coach Grant through his first six seasons at Dayton is being able to trust guys outside of his top 6 players. And I think I may have said it before, as a youth baseball coach, I get it! You get a core group of guys that you know you can trust to do what you want them to do—especially when the game is in the balance.
Last season, they didn’t have a good enough roster, top to bottom, to sustain the three big injuries that took place. They addressed that in the off-season and brought in guys that 7-8-9 (also previously discussed) will make an impact this season.
In the middle, I think Issac Jack is going to be looked at to give Holmes an extended rest a couple times a game while bringing a lot of energy, grabbing rebounds, and getting easy buckets. Zimi Nwokeji appears to be the ninth or tenth guy in the rotation and is probably looking at 6-10 minutes a night. Marvel Allen has been good in the little time received so far, but will need some work to crack the rotation as a freshman. He needs to improve his shooting and get into better shape-- from what I was told he showed up a little overweight. Talented basketball player though. Jaiun Simon needs to develop some to get time, but may be a redshirt possibility for this season.
FUTURE BIGS
Dayton has played their A10 Player of the Year candidate DaRon Holmes II an average of 20 minutes through the two exhibition games. This team was very fortunate to have Holmes return for a third season and without NIL, I don’t think that would have been possible. So while some see the NIL as a way to widen the gap between the power five and everyone else, this is one instance where it certainly helped Dayton.
I forsee Holmes playing about 28-32 minutes on average with him getting more around the mid-30’s in the close games and closer to the 28 range in those games where Anthony Grant and the staff feel like they can rely on a 10-man rotation and wear down opponents.
I got wondering about next season without Holmes and it got me thinking. Could Isaac Jack step in and pick up those minutes in 2024-2025? Certainly, at this time there is a huge difference between Holmes and Jack. My thoughts are that Jack will have to develop a lot this season behind the A10 first teamer in order to see a big increase in his playing time next season.
It will be vital to get another big this winter or spring to pick up the crucial minutes that Holmes has played and will play this season-- those crunch time minutes where Holmes can take over a game. From what I am told, they will likely go to the portal and international pool for his replacement. I could see whoever they target come in and compete with Jack for the majority of those minutes and the other getting the balance. They’ll have a heckuva sell with their recent success in having big guys drafted. It would also help by winning and making the NCAA tournament this season as well.
SHOOTING / PACE
Early returns with Dayton's offense is they like the pace of play and the shots they are getting. They want to be a team that plays in transition and averages in the mid-70’s on the scoreboard. Probably for the first time since the 2019-2020 Flyers, there’s a ton of capable shooters from the outside. Defense to offense, inside-out, were the two keys to what made Dayton such an offensively efficient team that season.
Kobe Elvis, Enoch Cheeks, Koby Brea, Javon Bennett, and Nate Santos are all capable of hitting from the perimeter and opening up the inside for Deuce. From what I’m hearing, Brea has been shooting lights out in practices and just didn’t translate in the two exhibitions. He is still working his way back into shape. Even Malachi Smith is capable of hitting open shots at a decent clip.
Santos is another guy that hasn’t translated to the exhibitions either. My sources have raved about him since the day he stepped onto campus. He will get things going as he gains comfort on the floor with the others. Hopefully with the above group, Dayton can get good shooting performances consistently from 3-4 of those guys and coupled with Holmes production in the middle, that should be a recipe to win on almost every night.
I do think the defensive pressure is a point of emphasis for this season with the added depth. While AG didn’t necessarily think it was as effective against Ohio State, it’s still a work-in-progress and something that I think he wants to use consistently to get some quick offense. Not only that, but it can lift the energy for his group when needed as it did in the Cedarville game. The non-conference schedule provides some quality opportunities, but they need to find their identity early. Two seasons ago, it took five games to discover and as we would later find out, it was one game too late. Rally around this group, especially as they are trying to find themselves early in the season. It could make a huge difference.
ONE MORE THING
Optimism is not as high for Dayton and conference realignment right now after the Pac 12 shuffle finished, but I would say to keep an eye on Clemson, Florida State, and Miami (FL). I think those are going to be the next dominoes that fall that could have a downstream impact on UD.
CLOSING
That does it for this edition of the War Room! Thank you to all of you… You are what makes this board so special and the best place to talk Dayton basketball all year round! A special welcome to all of those that have signed up for FlyerHoops recently, hope you’re enjoying all the nuggets, tidbits, etc that the site and forum provides. Monday tips off my 23rd season covering the Flyers for Rivals.com and even longer than that on my own. This has the making of a really special season as I’m extremely excited about the roster if you can’t tell! Have to be ready on day one! And before I go, good luck to the women's soccer team tonight as they take on La Salle! Until next time… WE ARE!
NEXT YEAR'S EXHIBITION
I don't think there's any doubt that The Spotlight for Jay's Light was a huge success from the start of the event to the conclusion with the Ohio State-Dayton charity game. In all, they raised half a million dollars for a long overdue cause. Even with a loss in the actual game, it just felt like a win walking out of UD Arena that day. Anthony Grant mentioned afterwards that they'd like this to be an annual event and are already working on next year.
As I've already wrote on the board, it appears that Dayton is targeting Kentucky to be their opponent for the second annual charity exhibition. Although it's not 100% done, according to my sources, it's very close. The Wildcats would have been the opponent this year had Ohio State politely declined, but we all know that the Buckeyes were a great partner in this inaugural game.
I think with a charity game, you want to minimize expenses so a team that can bus over makes the most sense. So with that, geographically, if you want to bring in a name program you have to think about a neighboring Big Ten, ACC, Big East, Big XII, and those northern SEC schools. I could see Notre Dame being on the short list of possibilities in the next couple of years as well.
The other thing that I had a few times brought up was that they should reverse the order they went with this year. Instead of doing the Ohio State game first and the exhibition with a D2 or D3 school right before the season, allow the charity exhibition to crescendo up to the season opener. A lot may have to do with what Anthony Grant wants to do. If he likes it being a “tip-off” to the entire season, it will likely stay in that slot.
PLAYING TIME
This, to me, is the most important and intriguing aspect to the season. I haven’t shied away from calling this the deepest Dayton roster that I have covered in 25 years of being a scribe at UD Arena. I truly believe Dayton’s strength is in numbers with this group. It appears through two exhibition games, Anthony Grant wants to go 10 deep.
My biggest fault with Coach Grant through his first six seasons at Dayton is being able to trust guys outside of his top 6 players. And I think I may have said it before, as a youth baseball coach, I get it! You get a core group of guys that you know you can trust to do what you want them to do—especially when the game is in the balance.
Last season, they didn’t have a good enough roster, top to bottom, to sustain the three big injuries that took place. They addressed that in the off-season and brought in guys that 7-8-9 (also previously discussed) will make an impact this season.
In the middle, I think Issac Jack is going to be looked at to give Holmes an extended rest a couple times a game while bringing a lot of energy, grabbing rebounds, and getting easy buckets. Zimi Nwokeji appears to be the ninth or tenth guy in the rotation and is probably looking at 6-10 minutes a night. Marvel Allen has been good in the little time received so far, but will need some work to crack the rotation as a freshman. He needs to improve his shooting and get into better shape-- from what I was told he showed up a little overweight. Talented basketball player though. Jaiun Simon needs to develop some to get time, but may be a redshirt possibility for this season.
FUTURE BIGS
Dayton has played their A10 Player of the Year candidate DaRon Holmes II an average of 20 minutes through the two exhibition games. This team was very fortunate to have Holmes return for a third season and without NIL, I don’t think that would have been possible. So while some see the NIL as a way to widen the gap between the power five and everyone else, this is one instance where it certainly helped Dayton.
I forsee Holmes playing about 28-32 minutes on average with him getting more around the mid-30’s in the close games and closer to the 28 range in those games where Anthony Grant and the staff feel like they can rely on a 10-man rotation and wear down opponents.
I got wondering about next season without Holmes and it got me thinking. Could Isaac Jack step in and pick up those minutes in 2024-2025? Certainly, at this time there is a huge difference between Holmes and Jack. My thoughts are that Jack will have to develop a lot this season behind the A10 first teamer in order to see a big increase in his playing time next season.
It will be vital to get another big this winter or spring to pick up the crucial minutes that Holmes has played and will play this season-- those crunch time minutes where Holmes can take over a game. From what I am told, they will likely go to the portal and international pool for his replacement. I could see whoever they target come in and compete with Jack for the majority of those minutes and the other getting the balance. They’ll have a heckuva sell with their recent success in having big guys drafted. It would also help by winning and making the NCAA tournament this season as well.
SHOOTING / PACE
Early returns with Dayton's offense is they like the pace of play and the shots they are getting. They want to be a team that plays in transition and averages in the mid-70’s on the scoreboard. Probably for the first time since the 2019-2020 Flyers, there’s a ton of capable shooters from the outside. Defense to offense, inside-out, were the two keys to what made Dayton such an offensively efficient team that season.
Kobe Elvis, Enoch Cheeks, Koby Brea, Javon Bennett, and Nate Santos are all capable of hitting from the perimeter and opening up the inside for Deuce. From what I’m hearing, Brea has been shooting lights out in practices and just didn’t translate in the two exhibitions. He is still working his way back into shape. Even Malachi Smith is capable of hitting open shots at a decent clip.
Santos is another guy that hasn’t translated to the exhibitions either. My sources have raved about him since the day he stepped onto campus. He will get things going as he gains comfort on the floor with the others. Hopefully with the above group, Dayton can get good shooting performances consistently from 3-4 of those guys and coupled with Holmes production in the middle, that should be a recipe to win on almost every night.
I do think the defensive pressure is a point of emphasis for this season with the added depth. While AG didn’t necessarily think it was as effective against Ohio State, it’s still a work-in-progress and something that I think he wants to use consistently to get some quick offense. Not only that, but it can lift the energy for his group when needed as it did in the Cedarville game. The non-conference schedule provides some quality opportunities, but they need to find their identity early. Two seasons ago, it took five games to discover and as we would later find out, it was one game too late. Rally around this group, especially as they are trying to find themselves early in the season. It could make a huge difference.
ONE MORE THING
Optimism is not as high for Dayton and conference realignment right now after the Pac 12 shuffle finished, but I would say to keep an eye on Clemson, Florida State, and Miami (FL). I think those are going to be the next dominoes that fall that could have a downstream impact on UD.
CLOSING
That does it for this edition of the War Room! Thank you to all of you… You are what makes this board so special and the best place to talk Dayton basketball all year round! A special welcome to all of those that have signed up for FlyerHoops recently, hope you’re enjoying all the nuggets, tidbits, etc that the site and forum provides. Monday tips off my 23rd season covering the Flyers for Rivals.com and even longer than that on my own. This has the making of a really special season as I’m extremely excited about the roster if you can’t tell! Have to be ready on day one! And before I go, good luck to the women's soccer team tonight as they take on La Salle! Until next time… WE ARE!
