Welcome to the 1st installment of The War Room for the 2024 offseason! Hope everyone had a Happy Easter! As always, I'll begin this session with the ground rules for those that may be new. Everything that is reported in The War Room must stay in The War Room. Sometimes the info is sensitive enough that it simply doesn't need to be passed on beyond the doors of this message board thread. This is a special feature for our subscribers only. The reason why it is posted on the premium board is because that's the only way to ensure that the info stays exclusive to Dayton Flyer fans. Thanks for your cooperation. Without further ado, here it is.... The 1st edition of the War Room for 2024!
WRAP ON THE SEASON
It wouldn't be appropriate to start the off-season without putting a bow on the season that was just completed. Here's my disclaimer: this is my opinion, and only my opinion. You don't have to agree with it, but take it for what it is worth. When we entered the season, expectations with DaRon Holmes II coming back was that Dayton would win the Atlantic 10 and get back to the NCAA tournament.
Less than 10 minutes into the season, Dayton lost starting point guard Mali Smith to a knee injury. Certainly this was a big hit because of the experience he brought, the toughness he plays with, the leadership he brings. It also was a big hit because it chipped away at the depth and forced others to play more at the point guard spot. Namely, Javon Bennett filled in admirably before he injured his hand towards the end of the season. He was nowhere near perfect, but he was suitable and brought some steadiness to that position when it could have been a devastating injury to the team.
They didn't win the Atlantic 10 regular season crown, but they did earn a double bye. They didn't advance in the A10 tournament, but they did lose to the eventual champion. All of that says one thing, they didn't hit two of their goals. They did make the NCAA tournament as an at large, which was the main goal. With the help of their three-point shooting, they were able to win a game and advance as well. Although they didn't beat Arizona, I thought they competed and played very well against the Wildcats and left me feeling good about the 33 games they played this season. As a team, and as I predicted in the pre-season, they shot an impressive 39.9% from three-point range!
I was a little disappointed that they didn't play more guys in their rotationr, but NC State is proving you don't need depth to go far in the NCAA tournament. I would have liked to have seen Marvel Allen some this season, but I get why he red-shirted after hearing he was very far behind after his injury and you want to manage expectations so one doesn't get disgruntled. Overall, I thought it was a very successful season with all things considered. Advancing in the NCAA tournament, certainly helps that feeling about the 2023-2024 (and it doesn't hurt in how they did it) and carries obvious momentum into the off-season.
MEETINGS
I am being told that end-of-year meetings will begin this week as both the coaches and players were awarded some time last week while they were on break. With that being said, I expect to start hearing about any current players that want to enter the portal this week.
I am not going to speculate on any names, but I am expecting Dayton to have at least 4-5 open scholarships to shop with this Spring. That includes Brady Uhl's scholarship as they does not auto-renew like some speculated. It also includes Zimi's scholarship after he had already hit the portal.
Koby Brea, the nation's top three-point shooter, will likely be the biggest priority this off-season as he will be a victim of some heavy backdoor recruiting. Folks I have spoke to feel pretty good about Brea returning as both he and his family really love the coaching staff and the University of Dayton. I also believe he's going to be in line to get a substatial bump in NIL pay so make sure everyone that can give, helps out the Dayton 6th. "Most important recruit is the one that's already in your program."
Outside targets. I would also expect Zoom meetings to begin at some point this week with the coaches back in the office. A few names that I have heard so far include Charleston's Ante Brzovic (as previously reported), Providence's Garwey Dual, Furman's Alex Williams, and Toledo's Ra'heim Moss. I am sure there are a few more that they have prioritized, but those are the ones I heard early on.
You best believe that Chris Mack is going to do all he can to make sure Brzovic goes back to Charleston. Williams is a Xenia native that graduated from Moeller that averaged 13.2 points and 4.8 rebounds this season for the Purple Paladins. He shot the three ball exceptionally well going 59-148 (39.9%). At 6-5, 235, he'd provide some muscle with the ability to stretch the floor. Garwey needs no introduction as he fits the model of AG getting a guy the second time around after visiting a couple times during high school. Moss, a Springfield native, has started 101 of 102 games (last three season) for the Rockets and averaged 15.6 ppg and shot 30.8% from three in 2023-2024. Things should start heating up as the week goes on!
FIVE DEUCE
The biggest question last off-season was whether or not DaRon Holmes II would return for another season after going through NBA workouts. I felt pretty good that he would return and that ended up being the case. That same question is looming currently, and while I think he could use another year and capitalize himself even more, I think the chance of him coming back is less than 20%. From what I am told, there is likely going to be a sit down with Deuce and his family face-to-face that will likely be a strong NIL offer that he and his family will have to think about. Kudos to the 5-7 big donors at Dayton, who helped bring DaRon back for his junior year and it will have to be even stronger to convince him of one more year.
Regardless if he does come back or not, I think the coaches will have to bring in an impact five that can be a starter or be capable of playing heavy minutes with Deuce on the floor at the same time (and obviously provide minutes when Holmes needs a breather). Being able to go land a big through the portal always presents challenges, heck even John Calipari has the Big Blue brand behind him and has issues with it.
Dayton, however, has history. They've now shown that they can develop NBA talent in the front court and do it now consistently. Larry Sanders, JaMychal Green, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Darnell Harvey, Udonis Haslem, Mo Speights, Chris Richards, David Lee, Kostas (technically), Obi Toppin, Toumani Camara, and now Deuce. That's a lot of proof in the pudding!
I really think that Dayton is going to have an opportunity to land a big time center if Deuce leaves and the money is freed up. I think if he comes back, they're going to go out and get one still, but they're likely not going to have the type of ammunition to land their next potential first rounder.
SCRIMMAGE
It was pretty much a done deal that Ohio State was going to come back to UD Arena next season if Chris Holtmann was still coach. It was a very successful first scrimmage in 2023 for Mental Health, celebrating Jay's Light. With Holtmann gone, it's not 100%, but I'm hearing it's still quite likely that Ohio State comes to UD again in 2024 under Jake Diebler. There was also talks of possibly playing Kentucky if Ohio State didn't want to run it back.
I'm hearing that Xavier and Kansas were other teams that were discussed as possible opponents at one time. I'm still hearing that Dayton would eventually like to get this to be a regular season doubleheader similar to the Jimmy V Classic, but with all games obviously played at UD Arena. It would make for a home game for the Flyers against a quality opponent and then a neutral site game for two other high majors. This would be in addition to the Thankgiving exempt tournaments. Would also make scheduling a lot easier and I am sure that Dayton would still like to get that one game neutral floor game in Chicago like they've done in the past.
One thing a regular season doubleheader would also do is make it easier to be picked up by a big network. You know that Dayton officials would like nothing more than to find a way to get these games televised on Fox Sports or FS1, the TV network tied to the Big East. It might make it easier if three other non-A10 schools are involved in the event as Dayton hosting one game was the reason why the scrimmage was relegated to ESPN+.
Dayton is definitely trending upward with all that Neil Sullivan and the basketball program have been doing. When UCONN eventually bounces from the Big East (it will definitely happen), you better believe that Dayton is on the short list of replacing the Huskies. Well, nobody is going to replace the Huskies, but Dayton will be a good position to fill that void.
WRAP ON THE SEASON
It wouldn't be appropriate to start the off-season without putting a bow on the season that was just completed. Here's my disclaimer: this is my opinion, and only my opinion. You don't have to agree with it, but take it for what it is worth. When we entered the season, expectations with DaRon Holmes II coming back was that Dayton would win the Atlantic 10 and get back to the NCAA tournament.
Less than 10 minutes into the season, Dayton lost starting point guard Mali Smith to a knee injury. Certainly this was a big hit because of the experience he brought, the toughness he plays with, the leadership he brings. It also was a big hit because it chipped away at the depth and forced others to play more at the point guard spot. Namely, Javon Bennett filled in admirably before he injured his hand towards the end of the season. He was nowhere near perfect, but he was suitable and brought some steadiness to that position when it could have been a devastating injury to the team.
They didn't win the Atlantic 10 regular season crown, but they did earn a double bye. They didn't advance in the A10 tournament, but they did lose to the eventual champion. All of that says one thing, they didn't hit two of their goals. They did make the NCAA tournament as an at large, which was the main goal. With the help of their three-point shooting, they were able to win a game and advance as well. Although they didn't beat Arizona, I thought they competed and played very well against the Wildcats and left me feeling good about the 33 games they played this season. As a team, and as I predicted in the pre-season, they shot an impressive 39.9% from three-point range!
I was a little disappointed that they didn't play more guys in their rotationr, but NC State is proving you don't need depth to go far in the NCAA tournament. I would have liked to have seen Marvel Allen some this season, but I get why he red-shirted after hearing he was very far behind after his injury and you want to manage expectations so one doesn't get disgruntled. Overall, I thought it was a very successful season with all things considered. Advancing in the NCAA tournament, certainly helps that feeling about the 2023-2024 (and it doesn't hurt in how they did it) and carries obvious momentum into the off-season.
MEETINGS
I am being told that end-of-year meetings will begin this week as both the coaches and players were awarded some time last week while they were on break. With that being said, I expect to start hearing about any current players that want to enter the portal this week.
I am not going to speculate on any names, but I am expecting Dayton to have at least 4-5 open scholarships to shop with this Spring. That includes Brady Uhl's scholarship as they does not auto-renew like some speculated. It also includes Zimi's scholarship after he had already hit the portal.
Koby Brea, the nation's top three-point shooter, will likely be the biggest priority this off-season as he will be a victim of some heavy backdoor recruiting. Folks I have spoke to feel pretty good about Brea returning as both he and his family really love the coaching staff and the University of Dayton. I also believe he's going to be in line to get a substatial bump in NIL pay so make sure everyone that can give, helps out the Dayton 6th. "Most important recruit is the one that's already in your program."
Outside targets. I would also expect Zoom meetings to begin at some point this week with the coaches back in the office. A few names that I have heard so far include Charleston's Ante Brzovic (as previously reported), Providence's Garwey Dual, Furman's Alex Williams, and Toledo's Ra'heim Moss. I am sure there are a few more that they have prioritized, but those are the ones I heard early on.
You best believe that Chris Mack is going to do all he can to make sure Brzovic goes back to Charleston. Williams is a Xenia native that graduated from Moeller that averaged 13.2 points and 4.8 rebounds this season for the Purple Paladins. He shot the three ball exceptionally well going 59-148 (39.9%). At 6-5, 235, he'd provide some muscle with the ability to stretch the floor. Garwey needs no introduction as he fits the model of AG getting a guy the second time around after visiting a couple times during high school. Moss, a Springfield native, has started 101 of 102 games (last three season) for the Rockets and averaged 15.6 ppg and shot 30.8% from three in 2023-2024. Things should start heating up as the week goes on!
FIVE DEUCE
The biggest question last off-season was whether or not DaRon Holmes II would return for another season after going through NBA workouts. I felt pretty good that he would return and that ended up being the case. That same question is looming currently, and while I think he could use another year and capitalize himself even more, I think the chance of him coming back is less than 20%. From what I am told, there is likely going to be a sit down with Deuce and his family face-to-face that will likely be a strong NIL offer that he and his family will have to think about. Kudos to the 5-7 big donors at Dayton, who helped bring DaRon back for his junior year and it will have to be even stronger to convince him of one more year.
Regardless if he does come back or not, I think the coaches will have to bring in an impact five that can be a starter or be capable of playing heavy minutes with Deuce on the floor at the same time (and obviously provide minutes when Holmes needs a breather). Being able to go land a big through the portal always presents challenges, heck even John Calipari has the Big Blue brand behind him and has issues with it.
Dayton, however, has history. They've now shown that they can develop NBA talent in the front court and do it now consistently. Larry Sanders, JaMychal Green, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Darnell Harvey, Udonis Haslem, Mo Speights, Chris Richards, David Lee, Kostas (technically), Obi Toppin, Toumani Camara, and now Deuce. That's a lot of proof in the pudding!
I really think that Dayton is going to have an opportunity to land a big time center if Deuce leaves and the money is freed up. I think if he comes back, they're going to go out and get one still, but they're likely not going to have the type of ammunition to land their next potential first rounder.
SCRIMMAGE
It was pretty much a done deal that Ohio State was going to come back to UD Arena next season if Chris Holtmann was still coach. It was a very successful first scrimmage in 2023 for Mental Health, celebrating Jay's Light. With Holtmann gone, it's not 100%, but I'm hearing it's still quite likely that Ohio State comes to UD again in 2024 under Jake Diebler. There was also talks of possibly playing Kentucky if Ohio State didn't want to run it back.
I'm hearing that Xavier and Kansas were other teams that were discussed as possible opponents at one time. I'm still hearing that Dayton would eventually like to get this to be a regular season doubleheader similar to the Jimmy V Classic, but with all games obviously played at UD Arena. It would make for a home game for the Flyers against a quality opponent and then a neutral site game for two other high majors. This would be in addition to the Thankgiving exempt tournaments. Would also make scheduling a lot easier and I am sure that Dayton would still like to get that one game neutral floor game in Chicago like they've done in the past.
One thing a regular season doubleheader would also do is make it easier to be picked up by a big network. You know that Dayton officials would like nothing more than to find a way to get these games televised on Fox Sports or FS1, the TV network tied to the Big East. It might make it easier if three other non-A10 schools are involved in the event as Dayton hosting one game was the reason why the scrimmage was relegated to ESPN+.
Dayton is definitely trending upward with all that Neil Sullivan and the basketball program have been doing. When UCONN eventually bounces from the Big East (it will definitely happen), you better believe that Dayton is on the short list of replacing the Huskies. Well, nobody is going to replace the Huskies, but Dayton will be a good position to fill that void.
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