UPDATE 3:50 2/21: After further analysis I realized the A-10 website had not been updated for the new games scheduled. Also, the win-loss records for some the schools conference standing were incorrect. Therefore, my analysis was invalid in that it was based on incomplete and incorrect data which is why I took it down. Because the updates have added to the number of games remaining, the combinations increased significantly making the complete analysis complex. Therefore, I will provide some general observation which I will refine as I have time and as more games are completed. Also I have not figured in any impact by NCAA NET Rankings.
SINGLE BYE – LOCK
Worst Dayton can finish is 8-8, .500. URI, LaSalle, Fordham and SJU will all finish below .500 even if they each win all of their games assuring Dayton of at least the single bye. These 4 teams that will play on 3 March.
DOUBLE BYE
Situation One – Dayton loses last 2 Games – Eliminated from Double Bye
With 2 losses Dayton would finish at 8-8, .500. VCU, UMass, Davidson and SBU will all finish above .500 even if they lose all of their remaining games, .643, .600, .545 and .533 respectively. Dayton would play on 4 March.
Situation Two – Dayton wins last 2 Games – Dayton will compete with 6 other teams for 3 spots.
If Dayton wins both remaining games they would end the season 10-6, .625. The worst VCU could finish is 9-5, .643, finishing ahead of Dayton in the seeding. However, Duquesne and GMU would be assured to finish behind Dayton in the standings even if they win all of their remaining games, both finishing 8-6, .571. That would leave Dayton competing with Davidson, SBU, SLU, UR UMass and GWU for the remaining 3 double byes.
Situation Three – Dayton Splits last 2 Games – Dayton will compete with 7 other teams for 2 spots.
The difference between Situation Two and Three is that by splitting the last 2 games, UMass is guaranteed to finish ahead of Dayton along with VCU leaving only 2 spots. Also, it brings Duquesne and GMU if they win both of their remaining games.
SINGLE BYE – LOCK
Worst Dayton can finish is 8-8, .500. URI, LaSalle, Fordham and SJU will all finish below .500 even if they each win all of their games assuring Dayton of at least the single bye. These 4 teams that will play on 3 March.
DOUBLE BYE
Situation One – Dayton loses last 2 Games – Eliminated from Double Bye
With 2 losses Dayton would finish at 8-8, .500. VCU, UMass, Davidson and SBU will all finish above .500 even if they lose all of their remaining games, .643, .600, .545 and .533 respectively. Dayton would play on 4 March.
Situation Two – Dayton wins last 2 Games – Dayton will compete with 6 other teams for 3 spots.
If Dayton wins both remaining games they would end the season 10-6, .625. The worst VCU could finish is 9-5, .643, finishing ahead of Dayton in the seeding. However, Duquesne and GMU would be assured to finish behind Dayton in the standings even if they win all of their remaining games, both finishing 8-6, .571. That would leave Dayton competing with Davidson, SBU, SLU, UR UMass and GWU for the remaining 3 double byes.
Situation Three – Dayton Splits last 2 Games – Dayton will compete with 7 other teams for 2 spots.
The difference between Situation Two and Three is that by splitting the last 2 games, UMass is guaranteed to finish ahead of Dayton along with VCU leaving only 2 spots. Also, it brings Duquesne and GMU if they win both of their remaining games.
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